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  • reddymjm
    09-10 01:38 PM
    Here is a brief calculation of EB2 Demand till date (Today's Date)
    The total demand till date is ~ 120K which is
    Demand up to Aug 2007 = 45K
    Sep 2007 to Dec 2008 = 16 * 2.5K Perm Month = 40K
    Jan 2009 to Oct 2010 = 22 * 1.5K per month = 33K
    New PD porting after Aug 2007 (Current Eb3 Inventory is 60K till Aug 2007) = 10K
    Total 45 + 40 + 33 + 10 = 128K. This may be inflated but it is atleast 120K.

    By giving these numbers I don�t mean to scare anybody but it�s better to have a tryst with true reality rather than be ignorant. It is better to have an understanding of the backlog rather than feeling bad VB after VB, nothing will change soon because the backlog is so huge.

    If you look at the numbers it is very unlikely that EB2 will literally become current any time soon, the end of the pre-adjudicated numbers is just a tipping point and when this happens anything could happen 1) Make dates current (I personally welcome that atleast everybody gets a chance to file for I485) 2) Keep accepting applications in a controlled manner so as to approve in quarter or year. 3) Grant spillover to EB3 ROW (EB3 ROW backlog is so huge like EB2 - I in the same range 100-120K that the spillover will disappear in no time, also note that EB3 ROW incremental demand is much higher than EB2 ROW).
    The spillover is a happening of the present time when the economy is bad, the moment this changes everything will disappear and there will be no difference between EB2 and EB3 if you belong to a retrogressed country we will all be at 3K Per annum and EB5 contribution if any will be consumed by PD porting which will increase manifold as EB3-I folks waiting for 10 years is simply unacceptable, currently there a 60K folks here just till 2007. I strongly favor porting waiting for 10 years is unacceptable. Also being without EAD / AP is very hard, great that we have a IV campaign initiated for this the efforts in this direction are laudable. Actually as Pappu, Admin2 and others have been saying EB3-EB2 even though may be relevant now is actually meaningless this is relevant only in this temporary phase of time fighting on these lines will not help to attain any objective rather it will kill chances of EB3 friends with later PD to port. The biggest issue is the per country limits which equate talent pools like India and China and give them the same cap as countries which have 1/1000th population, if they cannot be eliminated atleast should be proportionate to population for larger countries and be at 7% for the smaller ones. PS - I have nothing personal against ROW friends.

    If USCIS wants to do another JULY 2007 they never learnt their lession. With the Quarterly/annual quota I dont think USCIS legally can make EB2 current. I hate another JULY 2007 for sure.





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  • paskal
    01-28 01:44 PM
    rajuram,

    thanks for reading and thanks for keeping the tone- even the complaints- civil. i did not intend to offend, if i did you have my apology.
    i'm serious about joining your state chapter, a lot of oncoming action including contact and phone and webfax will be coordinated through the chapters.
    please consider it. thanks again!





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  • gcphul
    04-09 12:05 AM
    I got 9thh year visa Stamped in chennai in jan with no issus it was smooth.I returned to JFK in Mid Feb. IO just asked one question abt my job role.Thats it i am done.But for my wife he took finger prints. Database showing someone else name and Pic. He asked to go the seperate room. IO was re checking again in computer my wife name and pic showing passport and pic came on the computer. I asked IO that something officer he just said Finger prints mis-mathing and he said its not big deal, wait few more minutes I let u go. After few minutes 2 IO's discussed something which I couldnt hear, they said to u can go. I was scared little bit. It was smooth.





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  • Dhundhun
    10-19 09:46 PM
    Folks,

    I was just looking at the Obama and McCain websites just to see how they look from design standpoint (I'm a UI designer by profession). I happened to read their views on Immigration. I was surprised to see that Obama's views were extremely vague and offered no solutions to retain or encourage highly skilled immigrant workers. McCain on the other hand has section on highly skilled immigrant workers and talks about retaining them after US education, H1B cap reform, greencard increase to reflect demand etc.



    I heard them talking on same issue. Your findings are consistent with what ever I heard from their mouth.

    Still it is hard to believe. Specially most of my GC holder friends have blind faith in Obama.



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  • Canadian_Dream
    04-10 05:56 PM
    the fact that reform is needed does not mean this is the best way.
    and btw i wonder what happens to true consulting companies- BCG, Oracle etc whose business is to provide these services. They are not some abusive offshore operation....how is it fair to them? Seems a bit radical to me...not that i oppose the need for reform.

    My only point was: the way H1B was set-up there was too much leverage to the corporations. This led to abuse by them at your and my cost. End result was wage depression, Green Card Backlogs and now H1B crisis. No matter how you argue it, the abusers have been a clear winner as an end result. Look no further than mushrooming of recruiting companies, and growing profit margins of TCS, Infosys and Wipro.
    In the end the reform has to come, unfortunately it came again at our cost. I agree it is not the best way to reform it, because it isn't in the best interest of H1B holders, but I guess the intention here is to stop the abuse at any cost. The best way probably would have been making H1B independent of the employer but again me and you are not kept in mind when a law like this is being written. What happens to BCG, Oracle etc, perhaps law should provide a way to separate wheat from chaff. If you take a closer look at it, these corporations do provide consulting services but consultants are still "Permanent Employees" with a fix wages and benefits but body shoppers have a different model with unpaid bench period and what not. In fact you can find
    Permanent Residents and US Citizens wanting to work or working with BCG, Oracle etc, but you don't see that with bodyshoppers and that's why I guess the 50% US Citizen clause in the proposed law. Please don't confuse this with the notion that I support or oppose this law. I am just trying to argue that if off shoring companies (Infosys, TCS etc) with 90% H1B's and local body shopping firms 100% H1B are getting punished I have no sympathy for them. These are the same people who refuse to give people copy I-140 approval notice and file for 59 Green Cards out of 20,000 H1B's they bring.


    How about sending back all H1Bs ? If there is no cheap labor around , the salaries for all others (Citizens and GC holders) go up. I so want to see 250 an hour rates.
    Applying your logic , you should get a job in your home country if you are smart enough.
    You should first read the original post that I responded to understand the context. As far as wages are concerned it is because of these corporations that hourly rates however high look meager when H1B statistics are collected by DOL, because a large cut is added to profit margins. That's why opponents of H1B program can point finger and say prevailing wages are not market wages. Do you support this practice of making profit by eating away a huge chunk of your pay just because they sponsor H1B (a Green Card the retention benefit to continue doing this for atleast 3-4 years) ? If you are then you are doing it at your own peril.

    Check out some of the prevailing wages and see for yourself if these are real market wages:

    System Analyst in San Jose California $64K
    http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/032807_systmsanaly_sanfranciscoCA.pdf
    Consultant in San Francisco 55K
    http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/cda/doc/content/032807_taxconsII_sanjoseCA.pdf





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  • makemygc
    07-16 06:07 PM
    This is utter nonsense!!!

    Core team - > Please work on getting some sort of easy webfax put up so that we may effectively address such utter nonsense!! The link to the fax should be prominently displayed on the main page of IV!!!

    Guys,
    Lets come up with some suggestions to counter-attack these false propoganda. Few thoughts??
    1. Will gandhigiri work with them? Not just sending flowers but using other Gandhi ways as well.
    2. Should core post some article on the home page.."Top 10 Myths About Employment Based Immigration" and include tax as one of the myths.
    Reason, i'm saying this is that in my company there are several americans who think that way even though they are ok with immigration. They think that we do not pay any tax here.
    3. Educate numberusa and other anti-immigration people about. I know we might not be able to educate the core people over their but we might be able to educate other member joining there.

    Any other thoughts?..



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  • ak27
    02-02 09:51 AM
    Hello Everyone,
    Many thanx to Varsha, Sanjay and all others. I am uploaded the updated flyers. As we have discussed over concall last week, we shall be meeting at Bridgewater Temple...

    AK27





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  • kondur_007
    04-10 10:28 AM
    Does anyone have numbers for spillover last year category wise? I mean, last year how many EB4, EB5 and EB1 left out visas got spilled over to EB2? Thanks...

    Here are the details for last year and years before:

    (Thanks to user "sangiano" on : link: FY2009 Visa Data, Spillover to EB2 - Will it be Similar FY2010 (http://www..com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/498198953/fy2009-visa-data-spillover-to-eb2-will-it-be-similar-fy2010))

    Employment Visas 2009

    Total Employment Visas for FY2009 = 141,020

    Theoretical values without spillover

    EB1 28.6% = 40,332
    EB2 28.6% = 40,332
    EB3 28.6% = 40,332
    EB4 7.1% = 10,012
    EB5 7.1% = 10,012

    Actual values with spillover

    EB1 40,978 = 29.1% received c.650 spillup visa used
    EB2 46,034 = 32.6% received c.5,700 spillover visas used
    EB3 39,791 = 28.2% received c.550 less visas than quota
    EB4 9,999 = 7.1% Zero spillup visas to give
    EB5 4,218 = 3.0% c. 5,800 spillup visas to give

    What is noteworthy is the fact that spillup/spillover visas were only available from EB5.

    In addition, EB1 actually consumed spillup visas and did not contribute any spillover visas as a result.

    This implies that the total spillover visas available to the 7% limited countries was only c.7,500. Since 5,800 came from EB5, less 650 used by EB1, this gives a subtotal of 5,150. In turn, this implies that there were only 7,500 - 5,150 = 2,350 as spillover from EB2-ROW. In the worst case the difference is entirely from EB5.

    I think it gives food for thought and shows the difficulty of trying to second guess visa consumption in Categories that are always current. I accept it might be easier to get a handle on non-NIW EB2 because of the PERM data available for ROW.

    I'm not sure why FY2010 would be much different, at least for EB1 spillover.

    Additional notes from subsequent posts:


    There was significant spillover in FY2007 because (based on 154,497 total EB visas) :

    EB1 only used 26,806 out of a possible 44,186 available visas.
    EB4 only used 4,794 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.
    EB5 only used 793 out of a possible 10,969 available visas.

    That gives a potential spillover of 33,731 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2007 that mostly went vertically to EB3.

    There was significant spillover in FY2008 because (based on 162,949 total EB visas) :

    EB1 only used 36,590 out of a possible 46,603 available visas.
    EB4 only used 7,648 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.
    EB5 only used 1,443 out of a possible 11,569 available visas.

    That gives a potential spillover of 24,060 visas to categories below EB1. In FY2008 that all went to EB2.

    The amount *was* smaller in FY2009 because (based on 141,020 total EB visas)

    EB1 used 40,978 which was more than the available visas of 40,332 (i.e. it used some of the spillup from EB4/EB5).
    EB4 used 9,999 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e it pretty much maxed out)
    EB5 only used 4,218 out of a possible 10,012 available visas. (i.e. much higher than previous years)

    That gives a potential spillover to EB2 of 5,161 visas, which is substantially lower than previous years.

    This is all his analysis based entirely on historic data (no predictions here; just what has already happened). All credit of analysis goes to him. I never crunched a single number; I am just an "integrater" of the info. Please also note that now we have found out that the word "spillover" should actually be "fall across and down"

    Hope this was the info you were asking for.



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  • perm2gc
    01-02 05:58 PM
    Could you guys please give me the matter to post so that I dont have to type in the whole story again...thanks
    Please check the first page on the thread.you will see the content to post.

    thks





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  • jonty_11
    07-11 04:37 PM
    >>>>>>>>



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  • Madhuri
    10-15 01:46 PM
    and will mail it tomorrow.





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  • delax
    07-22 05:15 PM
    I485 Receipt I485 Pending I485-processed FB I-485 EB I-485
    Oct-07 237915 842231 50548 42500 8048
    Nov-07 51773 845691 48313 42500 5813
    Dec-07 35020 833141 47570 42500 5070
    Jan-08 35771 813238 55674 42500 13174
    Feb-08 38210 787516 63932 42500 21432
    Mar-08 43548 762938 68126 42500 25626
    Apr-08 50951 742597 71292 42500 28792
    May-08 45357 739934 48020 42500 5520

    * Data from USCIS months processing report
    ** Oct 07 Receipt number changed from 137915 to 237915 (just looked incorrect)
    ** FB is flat (730k-220k CP / 12 months)

    We have 113475 EB I-485 processed until May 08 (in 8 months), if we take 80% acceptance rate the number of visa used will be 90780 and if we use 90% acceptance rate USCIS may have used 102127 visas.

    Wow! Great Job. I guess I can call you vdlrao2. That means there are around 40k visas available and most should go to EB2-I.......



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  • PresidentO
    02-03 05:07 PM
    So naive of you to think that Senator-elect (Is she sworn in yet?) Gillibrand would be the person to do this. She is already labeled a flip flopper for courting hispanic groups.

    AFAIK, The 8 year wait time she was referring to was not EB wait times. That was posted here on IV, discussed and proved that she was talking in general. Actions speak louder than talk. Talk is free, action is risk for politicians.

    Good luck!





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  • pappu
    12-25 06:50 PM
    If you create groups on yahoo or google make sure you do not miss out on members that come to this thread for updates on state chapter and wish to join.



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  • PresidentO
    02-11 01:19 PM
    Read this
    http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY08-AR-TableV.pdf

    and tell us, where do you see 13,000 unused numbers?

    Desi3933,

    +1

    People keep falling for the attorney's sensationalism. If he is so *darn* right, why does not he got to DOS and get an explanation on why they did not extend dates further and why DOS did not do the math right. Just because you have a blog does not mean that you can write what ever you want. Well I guess you could. Obviously, our fellow members think that they really lost a chance at the green card. An attorney writes a piece of crap with out substantiative evidence or an authority such as DOS confirming underutilization of visa numbers and our members go on the roof and start yelling What is IV doing?

    If any one has looked at the bills sponsored by congresswoman lofgren in the past congress, one of the bills eliminate the spill over of visas from FB to EB and vice versa. If the numbers are coming into EB from FB this year, FB was the one that was supposed to get numbers from EB last year. As I recall during the final Q of 08, DOS announced that there were 22K visa numbers or what so ever that came in from FB and moved dates all the way into Aug 06 for EB2 India. Hence there must *NOT* have been any spill over last year and DOS unable to walk on the slippery slope actually issued 1120 more visas as you pointed and benefitted AOS applicants.





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  • deepakjain
    08-11 11:41 AM
    It's out now EB2 I and C are 08JAN05.

    Visa Bulletin September 2009 (http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_4558.html)

    2010, all those who filed 485 by 2006 will be cleared up and will be given GC, 2010 end there will be another wave of 485 filers who will continue as cash cows for next 5 years for EAD and AP, 2007 july filers will be cleared up by 2012 - This was my prediction before the Sept bulletin......

    filers till 2006 wait for an year, your GC will be in your wallet by 2010.

    Filers till July 2007 wait till 2012 your GC's should be in your wallet.....



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  • PresidentO
    11-13 02:28 AM
    Spill over does not need to happen every Q. It is purely based on demand and supply. If the visa office sees demand go south ( read really really south) and do not expect the demand to pick up for the rest of the year, yeah then the visa office will move the dated forward using spill over. if the demand is enough, meaning categories that are current are just using fine and CIS has enough backlogs VO does not move dates.

    The most pre cautious option is (esp now that there are a shit load of pre adjudicated cases) is to leave the numbers for categories that are current until the final Q and then move the dates so that all current categories got a best shot at the visa number before it goes to the retrogressed. The visa office is pretty savvy and the numbers we saw from USCIS might be way off the real numbers the visa office sees and assigns a visa number for. Based on last 3 years, it seems that the DOS/VO knows the importance of visa numbers.

    if you are talking lawsuit because you are frustrated, yeah vent it out. But if you are really serious go ahead and check the INA act and verify whether the INA act actually talks about quarterly allocation. Come up with the ground work, have a point and then think about lawsuit. No point in hallucinating.

    Just an F Y I, I havent read all 5 pages of this thread





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  • royus77
    08-11 10:58 PM
    If there is a non-controversial immi. law change attempt I will donate $500. I will also bring my friends and the total may exceed $2000. We all willing to donate but only if we know that there is good chance of passing.

    If there is an attempt to push ideas like recapture, forget it. It will not pass in this economy. I do not want to waste my money and time on those kind of ideas.

    IMHO. Not to find fault with anyone. Please do not mistake me.

    what is the percentage you are looking ? 50 -50 ?I know thousands of people who can write a check for 10K to support any law that can give them a GC in the next 3-6 months..





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  • delax
    07-13 08:35 AM
    ALL I AM SAYING IS WITH GREAT POWER COMES GREAT RESPONSIBILITY. REASON WHY I LIKE IV OVER MURTHY. IMMIGRATION IS MURTHY'S PRIMARY BUSINESS .. IV IS DOING NOT FOR MONEY BUT TO REALLY FIX THINGS ... MUST MEAN SOMETHING RIGHT ... GO IV
    -M


    You've got me totally wrong - Its not a question of liking one over the other. How can you compare a lobbying outfit whose objective is to change existing law to better suit reality to a law firm whose objective is to help clients attain permanent residency within the EXISTING law.

    If you had been on one of the calls last week that Murthy organized for her clients - you would know what I am saying and why she is doing what she is doing or why she is not doing what everyone else is EXPECTING her to do.





    uma001
    03-21 01:26 PM
    I replied to your message. Pls check it.





    kumar1
    03-16 01:04 AM
    Once again, just like DESI said -- you do care about the comments otherwise you would not have posted your replies at 1 AM.

    I am not sure which school in India you are pointing to, but I have a 4 year degree from IIT Delhi, and I am in EB-3. Why?? No point telling you! My wife is also from IIT Delhi....on H4. Why? No point telling you!

    You are naieve!

    so if you have a 4-year degree you consider yourself "highly-skilled"??

    hahahahahaha.............ahahahahahaha............ ..wait for me while i roll on the floor laughing.

    console yourself by crying yourself hoarse that you are "highly-skilled"......... a programmer/analyst/blah blah is no better than a call center employee in india.........just that you guys happen to be present here.....

    go get some real skills, do a REAL job, then we will talk.

    and oh by the way, there is only ONE school that i know of in India, that gives out a Bachelor's degree worth anything. I am sure you know what it is. I am also sure you did not manage to get through to study in that school.

    Good luck being highly-skilled. I would be amused if you are stuck in EB3 still, though......



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